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Economic Basics Part 2: Lesson One
Video SummaryThis lesson covers the primary lesson of economics and its implications: The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups. |
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This is going to be about Lesson One, as in lesson number one--the number-one lesson, the big thing you need to know. Here the lesson to you as it was told by Henry Hazlitt from his book, Economics In One Lesson. (If you like, you can read the book for free at the Foundation for Economic Education's website.) The lesson is: The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups. So in other words, when you have an economic policy, what you need to be looking at is not only what you intend to come from it, or what you think is going to come from it, but also any side effects--and this is where you get into something very powerful called The Law of Unintended Consequences. It's not really a law, it's kind of like Murphy's Law. Some people say the Doctrine of Unintended Consequences, others say hidden costs or hidden effects. It's like if you take a medicine, and it has the effect you want, but it also has all these side effects. The Law of Unintended Consequences says that other things are going to be happening. So, what are these other things? Let's imagine that you're driving down the road and there's a place on the road where there's kind of a ditch with a drop-off and that makes you nervous. And you think, gee the government should put up a barrier there. And then the government does put up a barrier and then you drive by again. Think about how you drive now that the barrier's there as opposed to how you drove before the barrier came up. You drive pretty differently. Without the barrier, you're more cautious--maybe you'd slow down, maybe you're more alert, you really didn't want to go off the edge. With the barrier there, there was a lulling effect. You said, "Oh, I'm safer"--maybe not consciously, but thinking you're safer you relax and went through it. So, before the barrier, you were driving more safely. That means you were less likely to get in an accident than you are now. This makes sense because the consequences are different--you don't have the consequence of going into the gully. But it only makes sense of the consequences are commensurate with your reaction to it-- if you're overestimating the value of the barrier, then what you're doing is, you're being less cautious than you should be and the overall the effect of the barrier might actually be that there are more accidents. This is not to say that such barriers are bad, but every time you do something like this you have to take this into effect. When you say, "Is a barrier going to be effective?" you have to consider not only the consequences of having the accident but the consequences on the psychology of the drivers. You've got to consider them all and figure out which way the wins out in the end. That's the essence of the Law of Unintended Consequences and if you want to learn more about that particular effect, look up the "Peltzman Effect." The premier example in economics is something raised by Frederic Bastiat back in the Nineteenth Century called the Broken Window Fallacy. It goes like this: A shop owner has a store with a plate glass window. A boy comes along, throws a rock, and breaks out the window. Angry, this shop owner runs out and starts yelling at the boy, and it attracts a crowd. The crowd gets to thinking: Why is he so mad at the boy? The boy has done something good because now a glazier has work. Someone has to make a new pane of glass, and there are also jobs for workmen to have to install the pane of glass, and that increases the local economy. That's good for everyone! Don't be so selfish just because your windows broken! This is going to improve things for everyone! This is a fallacy and it's a fallacy which runs afoul of Lesson One. They're thinking, "Oh, now a glazier has work." But he has work because a window has been broken. What if that window hadn't been broken? Let's say it costs two hundred dollars to replace the window. What would the store owner have done with that two hundred dollars if the boy hadn't broken the window? Let's say he would have used it to buy a new suit. He can't buy that suit anymore because now he has to use it to pay for the new window. So the glazier's job comes at the cost We can actually show this mathematically. Let's look and the value of a new window minus the value of the broken window. That is greater than the value of the new suit: Window(new) - Window(broken) > Suit That's why the business owner's going to spend the money to fix the window and decide not to get to the new suit after all. The broken window might actually have a negative value because it lets in flies and messes with the air conditioning. He wants his window fixed. That's how the crowd's thinking. But they're not considering the value of the new window versus the value of the old but unbroken window. If we do that, we see that the value of the new window minus the value of the old but unbroken window is less than the value of the new suit. Window(new) - Window(old) > Suit Now you can make the argument that when he puts in a new window, he's going to put in a better window. Maybe it'll be better insulated; maybe it'll be soundproof, it doesn't matter. If he had thought that those improvements were worth it, if the value of having the new window was that great, he would have replaced his window without it having to be broken. For a real-world example, look back at the end of 2004, with the Asian tsunami, which killed over three hundred thousand people. There were a lot of pundits (usually from places that weren't affected by the tsunami) who said that there's going to be an economic benefit from this, because all of the infrastructure is going to have to be rebuilt, Forgiving the fact (as distasteful as it is to do) that they're ignoring three hundred thousand lost lives. You can't really say that the new infrastructure is worth more than the old given the costs they've had to incur. How many cities make improvements by evacuating everyone and then bombing themselves? They don't do it because it's not worth it. This is the Broken Window Fallacy. In the Parable of the Broken Window, everyone has different things, like in any parable, that they represent. The crowd represents the people, and the boy represents the government. The government's come along and smashed the window and says, "Hey, look, I'm making jobs," and the people say, "Hooray! You're making jobs," and the poor shop owner's out a new suit, which, of course, no one ever sees. We'll see this, for example, when we talk about Minimum Wage in Part 4. Minimum Wage will have some people working for the new minimum wage, and they'll be thinking, "Hey, great, I'm making the new minimum wage and not the old one." What you don't see is the people who lose their jobs because of the Minimum Wage. Start Studying
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